I’m skipping Apple’s ultra-premium 2026 iPhones, and you will too

I need to start this one with a couple of big caveats. First, I know that the headline can’t literally come true. If there’s a dedicated fanbase for the $3,500 Vision Pro at the same time as the $500 Meta Quest 3, there should almost certainly be millions of buyers worldwide for iPhones below the $3,000 mark.

Second, the premise is based on a rumor, albeit one from a reputable source, The Information. The claim is that while Apple is planning to announce the iPhone 18 lineup in fall 2026, the only models you’ll be able to buy that season are the Pro, the Pro Max, and Apple’s first-ever foldable iPhone. All of the other options — even the “standard” iPhone 18 — aren’t coming until spring 2027. Those product names are just placeholders at this point, but they’re broadly consistent with other rumors, including ones about the iPhone 17.

Assuming the heart of this rumor is accurate, it’s a big bet on who’s propping up iPhone sales. I suspect it’s not going to pay off the way Apple is hoping, even if it’s prepared for sub-standard holiday figures.

High ticket to enter

The fall 2026 iPhone slate

The main issue, of course, is that the cheapest iPhone Apple will have available — right after driving up hype at a fall press event — is the iPhone 18 Pro. Based solely on past data and the short-term business case, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. In the December 2024 quarter, the iPhone 16 Pro accounted for 16% of all US iPhone sales (according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners), matching the iPhone 15 Pro’s performance in Q4 2023. Many people can afford to drop $1,000 or more on a new iPhone without batting an eye, it seems, and still more are willing to go into debt for one, however bad a decision that might be.

But the ticket to ride the 2026 hype train will still start at $1,000, and that’s in an optimistic scenario where parts and manufacturing costs don’t rise in any meaningful way. Apple is staring down the barrel of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, and on top of that, Apple hasn’t increased Pro entry prices since the iPhone 11 Pro launched in 2019. There’s bound to be pressure to keep up profit margins, even if it means losing the psychological trick played by slapping “$999” on ads and marketing.

That’s automatically going to limit the number of people who will buy a new iPhone during the critical holiday shopping season. Apple could be anticipating this, hoping to reap the windfall from high margins and people who aren’t willing to wait for the spring. But it’s hard to see things stretching far in a global economy battered by trade wars, literal wars, and employers willing to lay off hundreds of workers at the first sign of trouble.

The company is probably going to face an even tougher battle with the foldable iPhone. I’ve already talked about it before, but for a recap, the device is likely to cost upwards of $2,000 — in part because Apple is said to be addressing creasing issues with devices like Samsung’s $1,900 Galaxy Z Fold 6. No matter how long you’ve been waiting for a folding iPhone, $2,000-plus is an eye-watering sum, considering all the other ways you could be spending that money. Hypothetically, you could buy a MacBook Pro, or iPhone 18 and an iPad Pro with cash left over for accessories.

Apple has long succeeded by skewing towards “premium” (read: affluent) shoppers. Betting all of a season’s sales on them, however, seems incredibly risky, not just because of the current economic climate, but how non-premium shoppers may feel about the whole thing.

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Out in the cold

The common man plays second fiddle

Assuming again that the Information rumor proves to be true, postponing the iPhone 18, 18e, and 18 Air into 2027 is going to significantly diminish interest in them. Really, there’s no way it couldn’t, since we’re talking about waiting months longer for products with reduced feature sets. Indeed, by spring 2027, the iPhone 19 Pro will be half a year away. If I were an 18 Air buyer, I’d feel like a neglected middle child.

If sales of these cheaper devices prove just fine, it could nevertheless send a harsh if inadvertent message — that if you’re among the majority of people who can’t afford a Pro iPhone, let alone a $2,000 foldable, you’re a low priority. You don’t count for much. The people with gobs of disposable income get to go first in line, no matter how long you’ve been waiting to upgrade, or how much you’re interested in the Apple ecosystem.

I suppose that’s a common theme in capitalism, including some of Apple’s other product lines, but it feels different when it comes to the iPhone. Sure, the original 2007 device was prohibitively expensive for most people — but the iPhone 3G was a hit precisely because it reversed that, making a quality smartphone available to the masses. I can understand wanting to postpone a budget model like the iPhone SE or 16e by a few months, but delaying the “regular” iPhone 18 may be a step too far.

For that reason, I’m maintaining some skepticism about The Information’s claims. I trust the site, but the business and optics risks of stretching out the iPhone 18 launch schedule could mean that Apple will change its mind, and try to ship as much as it can in fall 2026.

I wish I could believe in that more than I do, however. The writing is on the wall. New iPad Pros and MacBook Pros already get the limelight before cheaper alternatives, and with augmented reality tech, Apple jumped straight to the Vision Pro, knowing full well what its competitors were selling. As of now, I’m expecting Apple to stay hard-locked into a premium focus unless the decision does blow up in its face.

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